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South American arid lands present unique constellations of climatic risk to their human inhabitants, due to volatile events that can create markedly different hydroclimate conditions over interannual–centennial scales. However, a main driver of such volatility – the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – occurs with semiregular periodicity. Paleoclimatic and archeological evidence indicate not only that the strength and periodicity of ENSO patterns have changed over the late-Holocene, but their impacts were likely recognized, adapted to, and perhaps capitalized upon by agriculturalists employing adaptive risk strategies. We examine relationships over the last 1.3 kyr between ENSO periodicity, ecological transitions, and archeological settlement in Peru’s Chicama Valley through a coupled paleohydroclimate and agroecology model. We reconstruct periods when ENSO-like conditions dominated past hydroclimates and present a quantitative, spatially-explicit analysis of ecological productivity during modern ENSO-positive hydroclimate conditions. We show that archeological settlement patterns are sensitive to these transformations and reflect efforts to capitalize on expanded agroecological niches. Such expanded niches potentially offset the adverse impacts and risks associated with abrupt ENSO climate events. These results suggest archeological communities were aware of ENSO risk and managed productive strategies accordingly, highlighting the importance of a risk calculus that considers the net ecological effects of climate events. 

Abstract Drought has long been suspected as playing an important role in the abandonment of pre-Columbian Native American settlements across the midcontinental United States between 1350 and 1450 CE. However, high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions reflecting local effective moisture (the ratio of precipitation to evaporation) that are located in proximity to Mississippi period (1050–1450 CE) population centers are lacking. Here, we present a 1600-year-long decadally resolved oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) record from Horseshoe Lake (Collinsville, IL), an evaporatively influenced oxbow lake that is centrally located within the largest and mostly densely populated series of Mississippian settlements known as Greater Cahokia. A shift to higher δ¹⁸O in the Horseshoe Lake sediment record from 1200 to 1400 CE indicates that strongly evaporative conditions (i.e., low effective moisture) were persistent during the leadup to Cahokia’s abandonment. These results support the hypothesis that climate, and drought specifically, strongly impacted agriculturally based pre-Columbian Native American cultures in the midcontinental US and highlights the susceptibility of this region, presently a global food production center, to hydroclimate extremes.